USD/TRY: There is nothing left that could prevent a complete collapse of the Lira – Commerzbank

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, analyzes TRY outlook following last week’s Turkish central bank (CBRT) policy decision.

The only option left is a harsh version of capital controls, combined with currency rationing

What's left now? Last Thursday's 650 bps rate hike art weighed in the balances, and art found wanting. There's nothing left – one might think – that could prevent a complete collapse of the Lira.

If my fear is correct – that a credible sustainable turnaround in monetary policy is no longer possible – then the only option left is a harsh version of capital controls, combined with currency rationing. I sincerely hope it is my lack of imagination that I cannot think of a more benign development.