EUR/USD to be around 1.1000 at the end of 2024 and around 1.0800 at the end of 2025 – Commerzbank

Forecast change! Economists at Commerzbank have lowered their EUR/USD forecast.

Only five rate cuts expected by the end of 2025 in the US

We now expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to be around 1.1000 at the end of 2024 (previously: 1.1200) and around 1.0800 at the end of 2025 (previously: 1.1000). 

The main reason for the change in forecast is the reassessment of US monetary policy. Instead of eight rate cuts by the end of 2025, we now expect only five, which is less than the market is currently pricing in.