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31 Mar 2015
AUD/USD extends decline and tests 0.7600; 0.7000 on sight?
FXStreet (Tokyo) - The Australian dollar arrived at the 0.7600 level against the US dollar as the Aussie is trading under pressure amid falling commodity prices, RBA rate cuts speculations and the USD strengthening.
After 70 pips from 0.7660, the AUD/USD is now testing the 0.7600, the lowest level since March 18. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7607, down 0.58% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7666 and low at 0.7596.
The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.
AUD/USD forecast
According to Capital Economics Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist Paul Dales, his firm thinks "the odds just about favour the RBA announcing at Tuesday's meeting a 0.25% cut in rates to 2.0%." The cut "would take the official cash rate down to a new record low, but we doubt that 2.0% will mark the trough of the cycle."
In this framework, Capital Economics expects that interest rates will be reduced to 1.5% by the end of 2015. It will be "consistent with the Australian dollar weakening to around US$0.70."
Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate levels
As for the short term, if the AUD/USD manages to break below 0.7600, it will find supports at 0.7590, 0.7570 and 0.7560. To the upside, resistances are at 0.7620, 0.7640 and 0.7665.
After 70 pips from 0.7660, the AUD/USD is now testing the 0.7600, the lowest level since March 18. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7607, down 0.58% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7666 and low at 0.7596.
The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.
AUD/USD forecast
According to Capital Economics Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist Paul Dales, his firm thinks "the odds just about favour the RBA announcing at Tuesday's meeting a 0.25% cut in rates to 2.0%." The cut "would take the official cash rate down to a new record low, but we doubt that 2.0% will mark the trough of the cycle."
In this framework, Capital Economics expects that interest rates will be reduced to 1.5% by the end of 2015. It will be "consistent with the Australian dollar weakening to around US$0.70."
Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate levels
As for the short term, if the AUD/USD manages to break below 0.7600, it will find supports at 0.7590, 0.7570 and 0.7560. To the upside, resistances are at 0.7620, 0.7640 and 0.7665.