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29 Jun 2015
Greece: Hard where to begin describing events last 48 hours - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - The ANZ Research Team notes that the only thing that we know for sure is that uncertainty is high, and in that environment, many markets will catch a safe haven bid.
Key Quotes
"In any other weekend, news of China easing policy further would be a headline-leading event, but not this weekend. Instead we are left pondering the real prospect of Greece leaving the euro area after a tumultuous breaking down of negotiations following the announcement (on Twitter no less) by Greek Prime Minister Tspiras that a referendum on creditors’ demands will be held on 5 July."
"The issue: Greece is due to make a payment to the IMF on 30 June and does not have the cash to do so. It is not even clear that following the referendum creditors’ support will still be available. The IMF is certainly not impressed."
"The ECB has said it will maintain the current ELA for Greek banks, but will reassess the situation on an ongoing basis. Most recently, the Greek Government has announced capital controls with the closure of banks, and limits on withdrawals. But many questions remain."
"Does a failure to pay the IMF mean imminent Greece exit from the euro? What timeline could this all play out over? How will depositors in other periphery country banks behave? Will the Fed be happy to hike against a more fragile global backdrop? The only thing that we know for sure is that uncertainty is high, and in that environment, many markets will catch a safe haven bid."
Key Quotes
"In any other weekend, news of China easing policy further would be a headline-leading event, but not this weekend. Instead we are left pondering the real prospect of Greece leaving the euro area after a tumultuous breaking down of negotiations following the announcement (on Twitter no less) by Greek Prime Minister Tspiras that a referendum on creditors’ demands will be held on 5 July."
"The issue: Greece is due to make a payment to the IMF on 30 June and does not have the cash to do so. It is not even clear that following the referendum creditors’ support will still be available. The IMF is certainly not impressed."
"The ECB has said it will maintain the current ELA for Greek banks, but will reassess the situation on an ongoing basis. Most recently, the Greek Government has announced capital controls with the closure of banks, and limits on withdrawals. But many questions remain."
"Does a failure to pay the IMF mean imminent Greece exit from the euro? What timeline could this all play out over? How will depositors in other periphery country banks behave? Will the Fed be happy to hike against a more fragile global backdrop? The only thing that we know for sure is that uncertainty is high, and in that environment, many markets will catch a safe haven bid."