Forex Flash: USD to weaken on today, helping EUR/USD to consolidate - Commerzbank

After last FOMC minutes making investors think the Fed is “hawk in a dove plumage”, Bernanke's speech yesterday “has caused market participants to rethink this view” and Fed's Chairman will speak again today in front of the House of Representatives’ committee. “Just like yesterday he will show his commitment to QE3 and underline that the Fed will support QE3 for as long as necessary and that at present the benefits of QE3 outweigh the risks – even though he discussed the risks in detail”, wrote analyst Antje Praefcke. “The statement in the minutes that “many” FOMC members showed concern about the side effects and risks of QE3 was omitted by Bernanke yesterday”, Praefcke continued, explaining that there was no indication yesterday of a possible end or changes to the scale of QE3 and he will avoid that again today.

However, solid and better than expected US data (Richmond Fed Index, consumer confidence, home sales) made up for Bernanke’s dovish approach. Commerzbank analysts expect US Durable goods orders for January to disappoint today. “However this is due to one-off effects and the underlying trend still continues to point clearly upwards”, they explained, predicting USD weakness today, helping the euro to consolidate somewhat. “But in the end the effect is likely to be limited while the crisis bogey still puts pressure on the euro”, Praefcke concluded.