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10 Feb 2016
Commodities: oil front and centre - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ noted the activity surrounding the commodities markets overnight.
Key Quotes:
"Crude oil prices were weaker. Concerns around global oil supply were front and centre after the IEA increased its estimate of the world oil surplus. The agency trimmed its estimate for demand and upgraded its supply outlook from OPEC. It now estimates the surplus will average 1.75Mb/d in 2016, up from 1.5Mb/d. These concerns were somewhat ratified by data showing Iran had raised its oil production in January to 2.99Mb/d.
Base and precious metals were mixed. A volatile day on global markets saw gold remain in sight of the USD1200/oz level. Despite a slightly weaker USD, safe haven buying remained evident, if somewhat restrained after this year’s strong performance. Base metals were battered by softer sentiment, with heavy falls across the board.
Iron ore prices were unchanged. The Chinese New Year holidays saw exchanges closed again in China and Singapore. The current price environment captured another victim, with African-based producer Kumba announcing cost cutting measures and a 25% reduction in output. Production from its Sishen mine is now forecast to reach 27Mt, down from 32Mt in 2015.
Agri markets were weaker. Increasing US reserves weighed heavily on grain prices. The US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate of wheat inventories to a record high 238.8 million tonnes. Higher corn inventories in the US also weighed on that market."
Key Quotes:
"Crude oil prices were weaker. Concerns around global oil supply were front and centre after the IEA increased its estimate of the world oil surplus. The agency trimmed its estimate for demand and upgraded its supply outlook from OPEC. It now estimates the surplus will average 1.75Mb/d in 2016, up from 1.5Mb/d. These concerns were somewhat ratified by data showing Iran had raised its oil production in January to 2.99Mb/d.
Base and precious metals were mixed. A volatile day on global markets saw gold remain in sight of the USD1200/oz level. Despite a slightly weaker USD, safe haven buying remained evident, if somewhat restrained after this year’s strong performance. Base metals were battered by softer sentiment, with heavy falls across the board.
Iron ore prices were unchanged. The Chinese New Year holidays saw exchanges closed again in China and Singapore. The current price environment captured another victim, with African-based producer Kumba announcing cost cutting measures and a 25% reduction in output. Production from its Sishen mine is now forecast to reach 27Mt, down from 32Mt in 2015.
Agri markets were weaker. Increasing US reserves weighed heavily on grain prices. The US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate of wheat inventories to a record high 238.8 million tonnes. Higher corn inventories in the US also weighed on that market."