USD/JPY stuck around 102.60 level amid thin liquidity

The USD/JPY pair remained stuck within a narrow trading range around Monday's opening level of 102.60 amid thin liquidity conditions on the back of Independence Day holiday in the US.

Last week, in the post-Brexit risk-on rally, the pair managed to claw back above 103.00 handle but failed to sustain its strength at higher levels and reversed sharply on Friday, erasing all its gains posted in the previous two trading sessions. The recent price action suggests a short-term consolidation phase before traders ascertain the pair's next leg of move in either direction.

With the scheduled release of FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and US monthly employment data for June on Friday, traders should brace for a sudden spurt in volatility that could lead to a near-term break-out momentum for the pair. 

Technical outlook

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes, "Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is around a horizontal 100 SMA, whit the technical indicators heading nowhere within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture keeps favoring the downside, as the technical indicators turned modestly lower below their mid-lines, whilst the 100 SMA maintains a bearish slope well above the current level. The downward risk is now limited by the strong momentum in stocks triggered by Carney's announcement of a possible extension of facilities this summer. Still, if stocks begin to retreat sharply, the downward potential will increase with the pair then poised to fell down towards the 100.00 figure."