UK: Unemployment rate to hold at 4.9% - RBC CM

Sue Trinh, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the UK’s July numbers from the labour market are unlikely to give too much direct insight on the impact of the referendum.

Key Quotes

“Although employment gains are set to slow markedly in coming months, on this occasion even if the level holds flat with that seen in June, it would result in increased employment of more than 150k in the last three months. We look for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.9% and for average earnings growth to slow a little; the including bonus measure should come at 2% 3m/y and the ex-bonus measure at 2.1% 3m/y.”